COMPANY / RESEARCH
Research & Insights
FEATURED REPORTBiopharma’s Public ProbabilityThe state and future of prediction markets in drug development.A new report from Kalshi and AppliedXL on what happens when the probability of clinical and regulatory success becomes a public number.View the report →
FEATURED THESISOriginal IntelligenceWhat stays valuable when AI can deliver anything.For two centuries, information companies were paid for two things at once: originating what is true, and delivering it. AI has split the bundle and priced the halves at opposite extremes. Delivery is becoming a commodity. Origination is becoming the whole business.Read the thesis →SELECTED WORK
LATEST RESEARCH
15 JUL 2026How a Fact Becomes a SettlementHow one prediction market gets resolved — from continuous monitoring of primary sources to a signed, auditable resolution handed to the exchange, walked through a drug-trial example.APPLIEDXL RESEARCH · INTERACTIVE06 JUN 2026AppliedXL Prediction Model: Six Clinical Trial Case Studies with Full ExplainabilitySix clinical trials tracked from first filing to outcome. Each case shows how the model's probability shifted with registry events, and whether the final call matched reality. Covers Roche, Regeneron, Abivax, Akeso, Sanofi, and Praxis.APPLIEDXL RESEARCH · INTERACTIVE11 MAY 2026AppliedXL Response to FDA Drug Repurposing Initiative: 5 Drugs With Clinical Evidence and No Commercial ChampionThe FDA opened a docket on drug repurposing where commercial incentives are too weak to drive new applications. AppliedXL identified five candidates with strong evidence for new indications and no active sponsor.APPLIEDXL RESEARCH · 12 MIN09 MAY 2026Clinical Trial Data as Alpha: Building a Biotech Quant Trading Model With Point-in-Time IntelligenceA biotech quant model built on point-in-time trial data, enriched with SEC filings, press releases, and AI agents. 107 out-of-sample trades, +204% return, 1.32 Sharpe. The alpha the market can't see.WILL KATZKA · 15 MIN09 APR 2026Vertical AI vs. General AI: AppliedXL's Floor Beats Claude, ChatGPT, and Perplexity's Ceiling on Biopharma Agentic ResearchA head-to-head evaluation of AppliedXL against leading general-purpose AI on real biopharma research tasks, measuring accuracy, citation quality, and depth across 20 structured queries.12 MIN07 DEC 2024Seeing Risk Before It Becomes NewsExecution failures rarely appear suddenly. They build quietly inside clinical programs until they reach earnings calls or headlines. AppliedXL identifies operational risk long before it becomes public.8 MIN07 DEC 2024Systematic Trading Strategies in Biotech: Early Risk Signals for Alpha GenerationHow structured clinical-trial event data can support alpha generation through early instability detection, mechanistic readthrough, and volatility mispricing.14 MIN07 DEC 2024Spillover Risk and Readthrough Alpha: A Quantitative AnalysisRegistry anomalies precede press releases by 48 to 72 hours. This examines mechanistic linkages and asset repricing across 2023 to 2025 catalyst events.10 MIN06 DEC 2024The Hidden Signals That Decide Drug Success or FailureAppliedXL decodes subtle shifts in clinical trials, flagging risks and opportunities before they hit the news cycle.6 MIN